Do we have a housing bubble in Australia at the moment? The Governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens, struck a somber note in his current address to CEDA, observing that the ratio of household debt to income went from about 60% in 1993 to 150% by 2006. “Households are servicing that higher debt quite effectively,” said Mr Stevens. “But as I have argued prior to, it appears unlikely that household debt can rise like that once again. Nor would it be desirable.”
Even though the above comment doesn’t indicate a bubble, it does indicate that the previous development in housing costs will perhaps not be repeated – at least not by Australian households. It does, even though, still leave scope for strong cost rises courtesy of foreign investment and some of the nearly $ 2 trillion sitting in superannuation funds…
According to RP Information, property prices have risen by 10.2% over the previous 12 months. The 3 best-performing capital cities were:
• Sydney 14.8%
• Melbourne 11.%
• Brisbane 6.9&
Further exciting analysis from RP Information identified that across the combined capital cities, only 28% of properties sold more than the 12 months to June 2014 had been priced beneath $ 400,000 (in regional areas the figure was a considerably greater 63.9%). This does indicate a difficult climate for first home buyers. Certainly, according to AFG, only 9.5% of all new mortgages processed in August had been for initial-property buyers, the lowest level considering that June 2010. In NSW the level was 3.5%!
The Domain Group, in its September State of the Market Report, forecasts fading residence value development right after spring (spring being a traditionally well-known time to buy and sell). The report observes that low interest prices have been a crucial catalyst in the revival of housing markets more than the 2013-14 financial year, but goes on to say that “regardless of reduce interest rates, either through official cuts or intensifying competitors amongst banks, the offsetting forces of declining financial activity and rising affordability barriers will act to usually moderate house costs development.”
Moderating development undoubtedly does not equate to the popping of a bubble. But those who have purchased with the expectation that the housing value rises Australia has knowledgeable post-economic deregulation will be repeated again in the near future may nicely finish up feeling just a small deflated.
Do we have a housing bubble?
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder