Vehicle sales numbers surprise in September despite challenging economic environment

“Despite the surprisingly better than expected sales results for September, the fundamentals have not changed, the economic outlook is still not looking positive, the rand continues to weaken which will undoubtedly continue to drive above-inflation new car increases. As expected, the export market continues to outshine the rest of the industry and this trend will continue for the remainder of 2014.”

 

General Comments on September 2014 NAAMSA sales:

• The month of September 2014 experienced a 9.26% increase in sales compared to August 2014.


• Month on Month only Passenger (13.10%) and Light Commercial Vehicles (1.70%) experienced positive growth.


• Year on Year monthly comparison shows an increase of 11.51% in September 2014 compared to September 2013.


• Year to date (January – September 2014) comparisons shows that vehicle sales are down by -2.5% in the first 9 months of the year when compared to last year.


• Month on month Exports decreased in September (-6.7%) with Passenger vehicles increasing by 13.8% and Light Commercial Vehicles growing by 42.1%.


• Year on year monthly comparison shows an improvement in exports of 257.9% in September 2014 compared to September 2013.


• AMH & AAD saw an increase in September 2014, 6.3% month on month.

General Comments on September 2014 Standard Bank VAF Personal Applications:

• In September 2014 applications for new vehicles experienced negative month on month growth of -1.1% while applications for used vehicles had negative month on month growth of -2.9%.


• Year on year monthly comparison on applications shows a decline in both new (-34.0%) and used (-1.4%) vehicle market applications in September 2014 compared to September 2013.


• Applications in both Passenger Vehicles (-2.5%) and Light Commercial Vehicles (-2.3%) in the Personal market had negative month on month growth in September 2014.


•  Year on year monthly comparison shows positive growth for both Passenger Vehicles (0.8%) while Light Commercial Vehicles had negative growth (-3.1%) in September 2014.


• The proportion of applications with RV’s increased to 19.7% in September 2014 from 19.2% in August 2014. However, month on month applications with RV’s declined by 2.0%.


• The proportion of applications with deposits decreased to 33.3% in September 2014 from 39.2% in August 2014. Applications with deposits declined by -17.0% month on month.


• The Average Contract Term on applications increased from 67.0 months to 68.5 months (September 2013 to September 2014), year on year growth of 2.4%.


• The average application size increased from R189 755 in September 2013 to R209 865 in September 2014, a 10.6% year on year increase.

General Comments on September 2014 Standard Bank VAF Personal New Business:

• In September 2014 new business experienced negative month on month growth in new vehicle markets of -12.5% while the used vehicle markets had positive month on month growth of 9.1%.


• New business year on year comparisons shows a decline in both new (-34.3%) and used (-19.6%) vehicle markets in September 2014 compared to September 2013.


• Passenger vehicles had negative month on month growth of -11.5% while Light Commercial vehicles had negative growth of -4.2%.


•  Year on year monthly comparison shows a decline for both Passenger Vehicles (-15.5%) and Light Commercial Vehicles (-18.2%) in September 2014 compared to September 2013.


• The proportion of new business deals with deposits decreased to 43.3% in September 2014 from 45.5% in August 2014 (0.7% month on month decline and -44.1% year on year increase).


• The proportion of new business deals with RV’s stayed the same at 25.6% between August and September 2014. New business deals with RV’s declined month on month by -2.7% and -28.7% year on year.


• The Average Contract Term increased from 64.5 months in September 2013 to 66.2 months in September 2014 (2.7% year on year growth).


• The average deal size increased from R260 966 in September 2013 to R288 606 in September 2014, a 10.6% year on year increase.

General Comments on Standard Bank Personal VAF Book:

• Personal Market book shows new vehicle market decreased from 57.5% in September 2013 to 55.8% in September 2014, while used vehicle market increased from 42.5% in September 2013 to 44.2% in September 2014.


• Passenger Vehicles marginally increased from 89.2% in September 2013 to 88.7% in September 2014 while Light Commercial Vehicles increased from 10.3% in September 2013 to 10.8% in September 2014.

Nicholas Nkosi – Head of Standard Bank Vehicle and Asset Finance – Personal Markets

General Macro and Industry Comments:

• The SARB left the repo rate unchanged at 5.75% following its September MPC meeting. The outcome was in line with the industry’s forecast. According to Standard Bank this was based on the SARB’s revised forecasts for headline inflation.


• Headline annual inflation rate (CPI) in August 2014 was 6,4%.  This rate was 0.1 of a percentage point higher than the corresponding annual rate of 6.3% in July 2014. On average, prices increased by 0.4% between July 2014 and August 2014. Transport index increased by 0.4% between July 2014 and August 2014. The annual rate decreased to 6.1% in August 2014 from 6,9% in July 2014.


• The SARB expects headline CPI inflation to average 6.2% in 2014, falling to 5.7% in 2015 and 5.8% in 2016, as opposed to their forecast in July of 6.3%, 5.9% and 5.6% in the respective years. Inflation was revised lower due to lower expected food and petrol prices.


• The change in the SARB’s outlook for inflation is significant in that they no longer expect inflation to peak in Q4:14, and estimate that the peak has already happened, in Q2:14 at 6.5% y/y.


• In addition, the length of time that the SARB expects inflation to remain outside of the target band has shortened, they expect it will fall below 6.0% in Q1:15 as opposed to in Q2:15.


• Growth was also revised lower, from 1.7%, 2.9% and 3.2% y/y in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively to 1.5%, 2.8% and 3.1%. Standard Bank expects GDP for 2015 and 2016 to continue to disappoint to the downside. The SARB has lowered its growth forecast for 2014 successively at each of the last 6 meetings (starting from 3.3% at the September 2013 meeting).


• Fuel prices have risen by 0.5% in petrol (inland) and dropped by -3.2% in diesel (inland) since Jan 2014 to October 2014. Further, the price of fuel in the country has gone up by 28.8% in petrol and up by 21.2% in diesel since Jan 2012.


• The price of 93 Octane Petrol will be increasing by 2 cents from the 1^st of October 2014. The price of 95 Octane fuel will be decreasing by 5 cents while both grades of Diesel will see a drop of 13 cents.

Fuel Types

• In the month of August 2014, Petrol vehicle sales had negative month on month growth (-5.6%) while Diesel vehicle sales had positive month on month (1.0%).


• Year on Year August 2014 versus August 2013 Petrol vehicles declined by -2.1% while Diesel vehicles declined by -0.1%.


• Year on Year YTD comparison for 2014 shows that Petrol vehicle sales declined by -6.6% while Diesel vehicle sales increased by 0.2%.

Also view:

Vehicle Finance, Car Insurance and Road Safety

Buying and Selling a Vehicle – Informed decisions and the Vehicle Retailer

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Vehicle sales numbers surprise in September despite challenging economic environment

AstaZero – the world’s first full-scale test environment for future road safety

AstaZero’;s inauguration on 21 August will mean that the world’;s first full-scale test environment for future road safety has been put into operation. The facility, which has a total area of 2,000,000 square metres, accommodates a range of realistically constructed, continuous traffic environments such as highways, urban environments and a high speed track. Besides its size, the facility in Borås differs from other test arenas in that it enables tests based on communication between vehicle and surroundings.

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All kinds of traffic and all traffic situations – on open roads and in town

The AstaZero facility enables the creation of different traffic scenarios in common traffic environments. At AstaZero it will be possible to perform a large number of tests: testing of driverless traffic, registration of the driver’;s eye and steering movements, automatic braking in the event of sudden incidents such as a child running out in front of the car or hazards such as an elk suddenly appearing in the road, cyclists making turns, rapidly braking vehicles in front, the vehicle’;s dynamic properties at high speeds.

AstaZero comprises a drop-shaped high speed track, called the drop. The track includes a 4-lane motorway which is 1 km long including acceleration section. Among other things, lane changes and different collision scenarios are tested here. In total the drop is over 500 metres in diameter.

The facility also has an urban environment made up of blocks. Its use is primarily aimed at ascertaining how the car interacts with the surrounding environment: buses, cyclists, pedestrians, etc.

In addition, there is a 5.6 kilometre highway. Highways are monotonous and the risk of the driver losing concentration is higher here than in, for example, urban driving. AstaZero’;s highway includes various obstacles, such as animals crossing the traffic lane. The highway is largely used for tests in driver behaviour.

A crucial step towards the zero vision in traffic 

Every year 1.2 million people are killed in traffic globally, and between 20 and 50 million people are injured. The costs for medical care for those who are affected by traffic accidents is enormous and the number of accidents in traffic is expected to double by 2030. Traffic accidents will then be the fifth most common cause of death. AstaZero is a crucial step in achieving the vision of zero dead or seriously injured in traffic.

Active safety systems are tested at AstaZero. Active safety entails avoiding collisions and other incidents before they occur. The systems are based on equipping vehicles and infrastructure with technology which enables vehicles to communicate with each other and with the surrounding traffic environment. It might involve combining sensor technology, vehicle communication and vehicle computers.

Passive safety systems such as seat belts and air bags provide protection when an actual collision occurs, active safety systems are being developed that prevent collisions and other incidents occurring at all. Some concrete examples are cars which warn vehicles behind of slippery road surfaces, distraction alarms which warn if a driver’;s eyes leave the road for a long period, or automatic braking systems if an elk suddenly runs out in front of the car.

Besides testing, AstaZero will also be used for customers’; research and development (R&D). For example, AstaZero can be used as an external development department for entire R&D projects. Researchers and traffic experts engaged in increasing safety for cyclists and pedestrians can also derive substantial benefit from the facility.
AstaZero provides driverless driving in roadworthy environments

The development of technology for driverless vehicles has come a long way and AstaZero will enable the development to take further steps forward. One example of tests with driverless vehicles is a test car that drives itself. Suddenly the robotically-controlled vehicle dummy in front reduces its speed sharply and at the same time the self-driving car has to have time to brake.
Owners, financiers and customers

AstaZero is an international arena for future road safety, open for vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, legislators, universities and colleges from all over the world and the facility’;s different environments entail a unique opportunity for research, development and certification of future road safety systems.

The name AstraZero stands for Active Safety Test Area and Zero, which refers to the Swedish Parliament’;s vision for road safety with zero dead or seriously injured.

The facility is located in Borås and is jointly owned by SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden and Chalmers. Official partners and financiers include AB Volvo, Volvo Cars, Autoliv, Scania, Västra Götaland Region, City of Borås, FFI, Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth and Test Site Sweden.

Some of the customers that will be using AstaZero for testing of future traffic solutions are AB Volvo, Volvo Cars, Autoliv, Scania and Test Site Sweden.

AstaZero – the world’s first full-scale test environment for future road safety

Infographic – Environmentally Friendly Car Guide: A contribution towards World Environment Day

Every 5th of June is a day used by the United Nations to stimulate worldwide awareness of environmental issues and encourages political action. During the past week it has been revealed that China plans to take more than 5 million ageing vehicles off its roads this year in a bid to improve air quality, with 330 000 cars set to be decommissioned in Beijing alone.

According to Beijing’;s environmental watchdog, vehicle emissions in Beijing were responsible for about 31% of the hazardous airborne particles known as PM 2.5, with 22.4% originating from coal burning.
Beijing plans to limit the total number of cars on the road to 5.6 million this year, with the number allowed to rise to 6 million by 2017, the local government has said. [Info via News24]

But how environmentally friendly are our vehicles? How much do we know about vehicle emissions? We received an interesting infographic which we would like to share:

Also view:

CO2 emissions and Car Insurance

Vehicle Finance, Car Insurance and Road Safety

Buying and Selling a Vehicle – Informed decisions and the Vehicle Retailer

Infographic – Environmentally Friendly Car Guide: A contribution towards World Environment Day